Gay Support for Obama Similar to Dems in Past Elections
Bay Windows
by Lisa Keen
November 26, 2008

Post-election voter analysis is never an exact science, but the exit polls and vote tallies from select precincts help paint an interesting picture of how gay, lesbian and bisexual people voted on Nov. 4 (exit polls do not identify voters who are transgender). Neither exit polls nor vote tallies alone tell the whole story. Exit polls capture a random sample but, when it comes to the "lesbian, gay, and bisexual" vote, tend to draw a disproportionately bisexual sample. Vote tallies from "heavily gay" precincts can capture the actual vote of a much larger sample of people but tend to be more white, gay, male, metropolitan, and wealthy and are muddled by the votes of at least an equal number of heterosexuals. But when one compares both sets of numbers, it becomes clear that, despite all the rhetoric around change this election cycle, the voting patterns of LGB voters in 2008 were very similar to past elections.

As in past years the LGB vote was more strongly Democratic than voters overall. American voters overall gave 53 percent of their vote to Obama and 46 percent to McCain. Looking at 80,586 votes cast in 56 heavily gay precincts over 11 cities in five states and the District of Columbia 79.4 percent of voters in those precincts voted for Obama, 19.1 percent for McCain, and 1.5 percent for other candidates.

Exit poll data from the national media shows a roughly similar split among voters who identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual: 70 percent Obama, 27 percent McCain, and three percent others. That compares with 1996, when incumbent Democrat Bill Clinton won 71 percent of the LGB vote, compared to Republican Bob Dole’s 16 percent, and 13 percent for others; 2000 when Democrat Al Gore won 70 percent of the LGB vote to Republican George W. Bush’s 25 percent, and five percent for others; and 2004, when Democrat John Kerry won 77 percent of the LGB vote to Bush’s 23 percent.

"There’s remarkable continuity," says Patrick Egan, a professor of politics at New York University specializing in LGBT voting patterns. "About three-fourths vote Democratic and one-fourth Republican from year to year."

The exit poll data was gathered on behalf of the National Election Pool, a coalition of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and the Associated Press. The polling firm of Edison Media Research collected the data at 1,300 precincts around the country, involving every state; more sampling was done in the most competitive states. Out of 17,836 people polled, about four percent checked off "gay, lesbian, or bisexual" on their exit poll. That would seem to calculate out to about 713 people. But Egan says it’s really not that simple.

"You can’t make the assumption -- four percent times 17,836 equals 713 people," says Egan, because the poll wasn’t done that simply.

"Most of the respondents are asked their sexual orientation, but not all," he explains. Some get asked other questions instead, like union membership or gun ownership. The true sample of LGB voters is probably smaller than 713, says Egan; around 200 to 300 voters.

"But that’s as close to a representative sample as we’re going to get," he says.

The national polling sample was supplemented with statewide polls, where the sexual orientation question was asked only in states with high LGB populations.

CNN’s exit poll results, available online, show the sexual orientation question was asked in statewide polling in Massachusetts (where 6 percent of respondents said they were LGB), California (5 percent), Illinois and New York (3 percent each), and Maryland (one percent). Going by those percentages, those statewide polls alone garnered results from 261 LGB people.

Gary Gates, a demographics expert at UCLA’s Williams Institute, an LGBT-focused think tank, agrees that the LGB vote "has been absolutely consistent since 1992: a three-to-one split."

But the exit poll data has its limits, too, says Gates. The polls ask only whether a voters is "lesbian, gay, or bisexual" and "a lot of surveys find that bisexuals comprise a very large -- in some cases half -- of that sample."

And the difficulty with that, he says, is that "bisexuals look more like heterosexuals in the voting booth than gays and lesbians."

"My suspicion," says Gates, "is that, if we got the gay and lesbian vote, it would be more Democratic."

In heavily gay precincts in some cities the support for Obama was higher than even the national LGB average. In Boston 85 percent voted for Obama, 14 percent for McCain, and one percent for others this year. In San Francisco, 94 percent of voters in heavily gay precincts voted for Obama this year; McCain got a paltry four percent of votes in those precincts, and third-party candidates picked up just two percent. In Provincetown, Massachusetts, 88 percent voted Obama, 11 percent for McCain, and only one percent for others. The numbers for P’town were virtually identical to the vote tallies in both West Hollywood and in five heavily gay precincts of the Silver Lake section of Los Angeles.

Obama also did well among heavily gay precincts in some of the red states, although not as well as in bluer parts of the country. In Dallas, 64 percent in heavily gay precincts voted for Obama, 35 percent for McCain, and one percent for others. In Houston, 66 percent of heavily gay precinct voters supported Obama, 33 percent McCain, and one percent others.

One last number: 5 million. That’s how many LGB voters there likely were -- according to the exit polls -- among the 125 million people who voted Nov. 4.