Same-sex Unions Could Bring Cash to County, Study Says
The Press Democrat
By Guy Kovner
October 6, 2008

Same-sex wedding bells could ring up more than $112 million in business revenue, taxes and new wages in Sonoma County over the next three years, according to an analysis by a Sonoma State University professor.

The anticipated economic windfall comes with a condition: Voters must reject Proposition 8, the Nov. 4 ballot measure that seeks to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry.

The San Francisco-based foundation that financed the study says it is not intended as a campaign argument against the proposition, which has strong support from churches that define marriage as a compact between a man and a woman.

"We funded this study to educate people," said Roger Doughty, executive director of the Horizons Foundation, which raises money for gay rights groups and opposes Proposition 8.

The foundation selected Sonoma County for the study because it is "well known as a destination point" for tourists and weddings, Doughty said.

But Brian Brown, executive director of the National Organization for Marriage, which supports the California proposition, said that an economic analysis was a "shallow and short-term" way of assessing the redefinition of marriage.

Marriage between a man and a woman is "in the best interests of our children and our society," he said.

Proposition 8 would overturn a state Supreme Court ruling in May that made California the second state in the union -- following Massachusetts -- to authorize same-sex marriages.

Robert Eyler, the SSU economist who produced the study, said the analysis was limited to the "purely economic ramifications" of the controversial ballot measure, which has drawn more than $30 million in campaign contributions to both sides.

If the proposition fails, Eyler's report estimates, 1,534 same-sex couples -- most of them from California -- would get married in Sonoma County from 2009-11.

Direct spending on the weddings would range from $20.9 million to $41.7 million, assuming that same-sex couples will spend in the same range as opposite-sex couples, Eyler said.

Multiplying that by two to account for the ripple of wedding expenses through the local economy, Eyler estimated the total Sonoma County business revenue at $40.2 million to $80.7 mllion.

State and local government tax revenues, including sales and hotel bed taxes, would range from $2.4 million to $4.8 million. New wages would range from $13.7 million to $27.6 million.

The total economic impact, including business revenue, taxes and wages, would range from $56.1 million to $112.4 million.

A study by the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law estimated the direct spending by same-sex couples getting married statewide over the next three years at nearly $684 million. Had the UCLA study applied a multiplier, the economic windfall would be more than $1.3 billion, Eyler said.

Failure of the ballot measure will generate "a gigantic market that Sonoma County could take advantage of," Eyler said.

Sonoma would compete with other areas, including San Francisco, Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, for same-sex marriage business.

Brown said there are potential costs to permitting same-sex marriage, such as the loss of church-based social services.

"It seems very shallow to just look at how much money is brought in by making California the new Las Vegas of gay marriage," he said.

You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com.